现代归纳逻辑性向解释面临的困境与发展

性向解释是在频率解释不能解决单个事件概率的情形下由波普尔提出来的。虽然波普尔的性向解释也没有解决为单个事件引入客观概率的问题，但与频率解释相比，它对概率论应用的情形提供了有用的扩展，并且“性向”这个术语并不仅仅适用于他自己的观点。由此，后期波普尔、米勒和费塞特发展了单个事例性向解释，吉利斯发展了长趋势性向解释。     

FoxPro2.5开发计划生育管理信息系统

本文分析了微机ＤＢＭＳ———ＦｏｘＰｒｏ２．５的特点及其在开发应用系统的优势和不足,介绍了独立实现的计划生育管理信息系统,还就应用系统的实现方式,对比了事件驱动方式与传统的菜单驱动方式     

从“嗑瓜子事件”看教师教育惩戒权规制

我国法律明确规定班主任有权采取适当方式批评教育学生，但对何谓适度并未作出清晰界定。因此，班主任批评教育学生时容易将惩戒越界为体罚，同时，因为缺乏评价标准，涉及惩罚学生的事件往往成为舆论热点。2014年底，湖南省娄底卫校某班主任因惩罚学生而引发的“嗑瓜子事件”，迅速成为网络热点，再次证明了规制教师教育惩戒权的必要性。应在坚持反对体罚的前提下，厘定“教育惩戒”与“变相体罚”两个概念的关系，并对教育惩戒权行使作详细规定。     

现实与表达：1945年中共对“胡世合事件”的建构——以《新华日报》为考察中心

“胡世合事件”是1945年2月20日在国统区发生的一起特务非法枪杀电力工人胡世合所引起的全国高度关注的惨案。中共对于“胡世合事件”的大力宣传，一方面引起了广大工人群众对于保障人权、争取民主、反对特务统治的呐喊，另一方面从侧面论证了中共在抗战末期追求民主、实现民主政治的正当性。     

On the Post-90s＇ Modern Health Concept from the Perspective of Public Hygienic Events

伴随社会经济的迅猛发展和城市化步伐的加快，生态破坏、环境污染等问题日益加剧。生物界自然平衡状态的打破导致近年来我国各类公共卫生危机频发，处于公共卫生事件的高发期，“90后”作为一个特殊的青少年群体，由于其身心机能发育尚未成熟，不但是此类事件中最主要的易感人群，更容易产生各类心理障碍与行为问题。现代健康观念的树立和综合健康素养的提升在这一阶段尤为关键。研究发现，“90后”青少年的健康观念趋于科学理性，健康自我管理能力和习惯养成有待提升：对健康危机的忧患意识较强，危机状态下的心理承受能力较弱；具备一定的公民责任意识和行为自律意识，但面对一些较为复杂的社会现象，现代法制观念和人文关怀意识仍有所欠缺     

Older adults' narratives about a flood disaster: Resilience, coherence, and personal identity

Older adults are a vulnerable group in a disaster and are more at risk of adverse effects as a result. This paper draws on the use of narrative theory in health and gerontology studies to examine how a disruptive disaster was storied. Narrative interviews were conducted with nine older adults aged over 65 years who had recently experienced a flood disaster. The participants' narratives about the disruptive event were integrated with past personal events that spanned more than seven decades. The disaster became a reference point for previous challenging experiences, which created biographical continuity, coherence and order over time. Furthermore, the disaster stories were about biography and identity, and showed how older adults made sense of the flood from a life-course perspective. The use of narrative approaches provides an insight into how the flood disaster was experienced, and reveals how four older adults storied their experiences of a significant life challenge.     

Interactive Hazards Education Program for Youth in a Low SES Community: A Quasi‐Experimental Pilot Study

A pilot study of an interactive hazards education program was carried out in Canberra (Australia), with direct input from youth participants. Effects were evaluated in relation to youths’ interest in disasters, motivation to prepare, risk awareness, knowledge indicators, perceived preparedness levels, planning and practice for emergencies, and fear and anxiety indicators. Parents also provided ratings, including of actual home‐based preparedness activities. Using a single group pretest‐posttest with benchmarking design, a sample of 20 youths and their parents from a low SES community participated. Findings indicated beneficial changes on a number of indicators. Preparedness indicators increased significantly from pre‐ to posttest on both youth (p < 0.01) and parent ratings (p < 0.01). Parent ratings reflected an increase of just under six home‐based preparedness activities. Youth knowledge about disaster mitigation also was seen to increase significantly (p < 0.001), increasing 39% from pretest levels. While personalized risk perceptions significantly increased (p < 0.01), anxiety and worry levels were seen either not to change (generalized anxiety, p > 0.05) or to reduce between pre‐ and posttest (hazards‐specific fears, worry, and distress, ps ranged from p < 0.05 to < 0.001). In terms of predictors of preparedness, a number of variables were found to predict posttest preparedness levels, including information searching done by participants between education sessions. These pilot findings are the first to reflect quasi‐experimental outcomes for a youth hazards education program carried out in a setting other than a school that focused on a sample of youth from a low SES community.     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

How publics’ active and passive communicative behaviors affect their tornado responses: An integration of STOPS and SMCC

During imminent threat crises, such as natural disasters, publics have minutes to decide how to respond after receiving a warning. This study advances understanding of publics’ crisis communicative and noncommunicative behaviors in the context of tornadoes through combining and extending two theories: the social-mediated crisis communication (SMCC) model and the situational theory of problem solving (STOPS). Findings from a survey of Southeast U.S. residents (n = 1,585) indicate that STOPS is internally consistent and accurate at measuring its intended outcomes of communicative action in problem solving. However, the STOPS measures do not have a significant relationship with the desirable outcome for imminent threat crisis communication: individuals following government’s protective action guidance about tornadoes. In comparison, the expanded SMCC model predicts individuals’ self-reported compliance. Finally, variables from the SMCC model and tornado-specific variables were integrated into the STOPS model to explain individuals’ communicative engagement. Implications for theory and public relations practice are discussed.     

铁人三项赛事对城市形象传播的影响——以大庆市铁人三项为例

城市形象传播效果的好坏是一个城市综合能力的体现,借助体育赛事举办、提高城市体育氛围来提升城市的人才吸引力与大众关注度,已成为众多城市传播城市形象的主要途径。大庆市作为铁人精神的发源地,在过去的几年里举办了许多大型体育赛事,并成功地利用铁人三项赛事作为契机和载体,促进大庆市的国际交流,树立城市形象。本文将从铁人三项赛事对城市形象传播的角度出发,运用文献资料、调查和逻辑分析等方法对大庆市城市形象的提升进行剖析,以求为大庆市城市未来发展提供参考。